The United States borrowed about $696 billion in the first four months of fiscal 2026, or roughly $43.5 billion a week.
Treasury’s own data shows the government had already spent about $697 billion more than it collected through January, while interest costs had climbed to about $426 billion, equal to 17 percent of federal spending so far this fiscal year. That is no longer just a budget story. It is also an environment story.
That squeeze matters because climate risk already carries a federal price tag. GAO says climate change has cost the federal government billions of dollars and warns those costs are likely to rise, which is why resilience planning can help limit future losses.
In other words, this is not only about spreadsheets in Washington. It is about how much room is left to prepare before the next storm, fire, or flood hits.
Markets are calm for now
So why are investors not acting like a crisis is here? For the most part, because they still treat U.S. Treasury debt as a safe place to park money.
On March 6, Treasury data showed the 10-year yield at 4.15 percent and the 30-year yield at 4.77 percent, elevated but hardly in panic territory. Even so, CBO now projects a $1.9 trillion deficit in fiscal 2026, with net interest outlays at $1.0 trillion this year and $2.1 trillion by 2036.
Climate costs are not waiting
And that’s where the bigger risk comes in. GAO says climate change could raise annual federal hurricane disaster response costs by $5.2 billion to $36 billion by 2050. Between fiscal 2015 and 2024, selected appropriations for disaster assistance already totaled about $448 billion. That is a reminder that climate costs do not wait politely for deficit debates to end.
This is not only about coastlines or wildfire country. A February 2026 GAO report said the Defense Department estimates extreme weather has caused more than $15 billion in damage to military installations. In practical terms, that means climate risk is landing on bases, housing, hospitals, and other assets tied directly to readiness.
What readers should watch
At the end of the day, the immediate danger is not a bond market panic. It is the slower grind of interest costs taking up more room in the federal budget while climate-related bills keep arriving. The United States can still borrow, and markets are not flashing red.
But each extra dollar sent to debt service leaves less flexibility when the next hurricane, wildfire, or base repair bill comes due.
The official report was published on Congressional Budget Office.
