Oklahoma has spent years chasing splashy “megaprojects” with taxpayer-funded incentive packages, only to watch many of the biggest wins land elsewhere. But the newestIRS migration dataset shows the state’s quiet growth story is coming from something far less photogenic: people moving in, bringing their paychecks and businesses with them.
In 2022 – 2023 alone, Oklahoma gained roughly $260 million in net adjusted gross income (AGI) from domestic migration, even after accounting for families leaving the state. For politicians, a ribbon-cutting is easier to sell. For households, it is the slow, steady math of who chooses to live and work there that matters more.
What the IRS numbers actually show
The IRS migration series tracks year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns, giving a window into how many households move between states and how much AGI moves with them. The latest data available, covering filing years 2022 to 2023, show 85,394 people moved into Oklahoma from other states, bringing $2.68 billion in AGI.
During the same period, 72,805 people left Oklahoma, taking $2.42 billion in AGI with them. The net result was about $260 million in added income, roughly a quarter of a billion dollars – from domestic migration alone.
Why this matters more than one factory announcement
The numbers matter because they provide a reality check on the “megadeal” temptation that has swept across U.S. states. Oklahoma officials reportedly offered Panasonic nearly $700 million in incentives for a battery plant promising about 3,500 jobs, but the company ultimately chose Kansas, which was reported to have offered roughly $1.3 billion.
A 2022 Wichita State University report used to justify Kansas’s package projected a total employment impact of 8,051 jobs and more than $505 million in annual labor income. That projected labor income is less than half the income growth Oklahoma has already generated through net domestic migration over several years.
The policy mix behind Oklahoma’s draw
So why are people coming? Oklahoma’s leaders have pursued broad policy changes that reduce friction for households and employers, including cutting the top personal income tax rate from 5 percent to 4.5 percent and expanding school choice through a refundable tax credit that can help cover private school tuition.
The state has also leaned into culture-war policies that some critics argue deter corporate recruitment. Yet IRS migration totals suggest the broader package has not stopped families from voting with their feet.
The “gardener” approach versus the “engineer” approach
Matthew Mitchell, a senior research fellow affiliated with George Mason University’s Mercatus Center and a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute, describes two competing theories of growth.
One is an “engineer” mindset that tries to steer development by picking specific winners through large subsidies, while the other is a “gardener” mindset that focuses on creating good conditions and letting people make their own decisions.
Mitchell argues the “gardener” approach tends to rely on local knowledge, encourages careful risk-taking, and avoids discouraging activity with higher taxes on everyone else. It is not as flashy as a groundbreaking ceremony, but the payoff can be more resilient because it spreads opportunity across thousands of smaller choices.
Kansas and Oklahoma are drifting in opposite directions
There is an irony in the IRS data. Even after Kansas landed Panasonic, IRS migration tables show Kansas lost about $1.9 billion in net AGI from domestic migration between 2019 and 2023, while Oklahoma gained more than $1.3 billion over that same span.
That does not mean the Kansas battery plant will fail. It does mean a single corporate win cannot easily offset a broader pattern of residents leaving, especially when state-to-state moves often reflect day-to-day costs, taxes, and quality-of-life decisions.
What readers should watch next
The big takeaway is that broad-based policy changes can show up in the numbers faster than many headline megadeals. If net migration trends continued in 2024 and 2025, Oklahoma’s cumulative AGI gains since before the pandemic could plausibly be about $1.5 billion higher than they were in 2019.
For readers, this is a reminder to look past the press conferences. When you hear about a state “losing” a big plant, ask whether the state is still gaining households and income overall. That quieter story can be the one that pays the bills.
The official dataset was published on IRS.gov.
